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Syria and Turkey commentary

#Syria’s oil and gas potential in the Eastern Mediterranean is wasted, while Israel’s thrives

Unintended irony in the caption beside Bashar: 'God is Syria's Protector'

Unintended irony in the caption beside Bashar: ‘God is Syria’s Protector’

No one mentions it much, but Syria, according to the specialist Oil & Gas Journal in Jan 2013, has the largest proved reserve of crude oil in the Eastern Mediterranean. Other lucky beneficiaries are Israel, Cyprus and Lebanon, all with large reserves of oil and gas. The gas reserves in this underwater Levant Basin are so huge the estimates say they would supply all of Europe’s gas demand for 7 years.

Yet while Israel has already started production from its Tamar gas field, and the huge Leviathan field is on course to follow in 2016/2017, and while Cyprus is also gearing up for its share and discussing shared export arrangements with Israel so both countries can benefit, neither Lebanon nor Syria, locked in conflict, can make any headway with exploiting these potential riches.

Western oil companies abandoned exploration operations because of political stalemate, but even now, after two and a half years of war, Syria’s government was still in April 2013 (according to a Congressional Research Service report) in discussion with Russia and China over offshore oil exploration. Syria is also said to have oil shale reserves estimated up to 50 billion tons. Russia’s state-owned energy companies have a huge stake in the Damascus regime’s survival so they can continue to profit from Syria’s oil and gas reserves, so Russia’s interest in maintaining the status quo with Assad in charge is clear. There is too much to lose, and it also wants to thwart Israel’s plans to build an undersea pipeline to Turkey, the obvious way to export oil and gas to Turkey (and thence to Europe) while excluding Iran and Russia, the two current supplier’s of Turkey’s energy needs. This also explains Obama’s instruction to Israel in March 2013 to apologise to Turkey for the Mavi Marmara incident, so that diplomatic ties between Israel and Turkey could be restored. America wants its ally Israel to be able to export oil and gas to Turkey. The longer Lebanon and Syria take to sort themselves out vis-a vis oil exploration and production in the Eastern Mediterranean, the better, from the US point of view.

The conclusion?  There is no incentive for the US to end the Syrian war now that the chemical weapons issue is sorted, as they want no interference in Israel’s ability to export from its Eastern Mediterranean reserves. And there is no incentive for Russia to end the Syrian war while it can still benefit from Syria’s potential Eastern Mediterranean reserves in future, since Bashar is now solely dependent on Russia (and possibly China) for future exploration and production.

The Syrian people do not feature in this equation, as usual.

Related articles:

http://www.ibtimes.com/syria-losing-out-huge-reserves-oil-natural-gas-eastern-mediterranean-sea-while-cyprus-israel-get

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22509295

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/31/turkey-israel-gas-idUKL5N0IK3MF20131031

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2013/10/02/Slow-progress-in-Israel-Turkey-talks-threatens-gas-pipeline-plan/UPI-65691380733010/

http://www.energy-pedia.com/news/israel/new-155694

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/30/syria-chemical-attack-war-intervention-oil-gas-energy-pipelines

#Syria’s road to extinction

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Among all the other tragedies of Syria, spare a thought for the poor people trying to save its environment and wildlife. When they admit to working for environmental NGOs they draw sarcastic comments: ‘Are you serious?’

But even now there are projects ongoing to save what remains of Syria’s flora and fauna. Most are conducted on a regional basis and are of course apolitical, staffed by people who happen to care deeply about the country’s environmental health and heritage, with an eye to the future for their children. The reality of working on such projects inevitably means involvement by government ministries – most commonly Environment and Agriculture – and this brings more sarcastic comments about being in cahoots with the regime and bringing it legitimacy.

The damage so far has been massive. Take the case of the Talila Reserve 35km southeast of Palmyra (Tadmur) on the road to Deir Ez-Zour. Opened in 1992 and financed jointly by the Italian government, the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Syrian Ministry of Agriculture, it was the first such project in Syria, protecting the endangered gazelle and oryx of Syria’s badia or desert steppelands. Apart from the animals themselves there is also a collection of wooden chalets housing an excellent explanation of the reserve’s ethos, its purpose, even incorporating Bedouin poetry and wisdom reflecting the Bedouin approach to nature and life generally. All have now been looted, seen as fair game because the reserve is a ‘regime place.’ Gazelle and oryx have been barbecued in the desert, not because people are starving, but because they have no understanding of the preciousness of the country’s wildlife, of the damaging effects of overgrazing by sheep and goats, nor of the attempts to reverse this process for the sake of future generations.

In Syria’s beautiful forests near the border with Turkey around Kassab, regime aerial bombardment of rebel emplacements has caused widespread devastation, often triggering fires which then rage as out of control as everything else in the country.

Only birdlife may be a beneficiary of the revolution, as ammunition has become too precious to waste on hunting birds for sport. Another of Syria’s many ironies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabian_oryx

http://www.esteri.it/MAE/doc/6_40_175_z.pdf

http://threatenedconifers.rbge.org.uk/taxa/details/abies-cilicica-subsp.-cilicica

Death by Extremism in #Syria

Saladin's Castle in the mountains above Lattakia, Assad's Alawi heartlands [DD]

Saladin’s Castle in the mountains above Lattakia, Assad’s Alawi heartlands [DD]

A recent 105-page Human Rights Watch report has drawn attention to a planned and coordinated attack on 11 Alawi villages in the hills above Lattakia. It was the first time these villages had come under attack in the two and half years of Syria’s civil war. They had considered themselves safe, as Alawis loyal to the regime, protected by their geographical location in the Assad regime’s heartlands. In the early hours of 4 August 2013 twenty rebel extremist brigades conducted the attack in concert with each other, massacring whole families, women and children, killing an Alawi shaikh and desecrating his shrine. The attack was led by the black-flagged Al-Qa’ida-affiliated ISIS, Jabhat Al-Nusra, Jaysh Al-Muhajireen, Ahrar Ash-Shaam and Suqour Al-Izz. None of them had links to the Free Syrian Army. The massacre was confirmed not only by interviews of survivors but by consulting hospital records which confirmed 190 bodies with multiple stab or gunshot wounds, decapitation and burning.

Yet the regime itself kept remarkably quiet about this massacre of its own clan members. Syrian TV simply mentioned on 18 August that control over the area had been reasserted, showing no images of mutilations and initially even denying reports of massacres. Why was that? Surely it would have been normal for them to flaunt such material as evidence of the ‘terrorist armed gangs’ and jihadi extremists they are trying to save Syria from? Some journalists speculated it might be because they did not want to admit their heartland was vulnerable to attack. Others said the regime wanted to keep it quiet because they were afraid of a sectarian war spreading along the coast.

But there is something else here. The attack began with a Sunni officer defection from the regime army, who took 30 troops with him, then returned a few days later as part of the attack. Sunni friends  living in Sunni villages nearby told me they, 50 men in all, were detained by regime militia in response to the attack, held as ‘human shields’, but told it was for their own safety. When they were released, they fled to Lattakia to join their womenfolk and their homes were looted and burnt in direct retaliation for what happened to the ‘Alawi villages. It is this that I think the regime wanted to keep quiet – namely their own retaliation. The ‘Alawi villages attack may well in turn have been revenge for the Al-Bayda and Banias massacre of Sunnis in May 2013, also carefully documented by Human Rights Watch. The US-based organisation has described both massacres as war crimes.

Neither side seems able to stop itself getting sucked into these retaliation attacks, dragging Syria deeper and deeper in the quagmire of civil war, shredding the fabric of society to pieces. How can this cycle ever be broken?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/02/syria-massacre-reports-alawites-assad

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21587845-extremist-group-ruffling-feathers-including-those-its-islamist

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/11/world/middleeast/syrian-civilians-bore-brunt-of-rebels-fury-report-says.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24486627

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24532793

Chink of Light in #Syria?

Aleppo citadel at night, July 2010 [DD]

Aleppo citadel at night, July 2010 [DD]

The speed at which things can happen once there is international consensus is remarkable. UN Chemical Weapons inspectors are already in Syria just days after the UN Security Council agreed unanimously last week to dismantle the country’s chemical weapons arsenal. They are working to a strict timetable and have just till November to complete their work.

Seven out of the 19 chemical weapons sites which they will be inspecting are, according to the Syrian government (which provided the list of sites) in rebel-held or contested combat zones. Here is the possible chink of light.

Ceasefires will have to be negotiated to enable the UN inspectors to pass through these combat zones to reach these seven sites to verify them and make assessments. The wording of the new UN Resolution makes it clear that action will be taken against anyone – regime or rebels – found to be obstructing the UN inspectors’ work. Such a situation forces compliance and cooperation on all sides and may be the start of a new dynamic on the ground.

So what if consensus can be achieved now, not just on chemical weapons, but on another issue of pressing concern – the need to expel from Syria the recently-formed foreign extremist Islamist groups? Parties involved in the conflict – both inside and outside the country – are increasingly concerned about the rise and rise of such foreign-funded, foreign-composed extremist groups such as ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Shaam), which are intent on imposing their vision of an Islamic state on Syrian citizens the overwhelming majority of whom do not want this. Many feel their revolution has been hijacked by these Islamist groups. Some who began by supporting them because they were better funded and better organised than other rebels, now regret their early enthusiasm. After experiencing the reality of life under such radical groups in places like Ar-Raqqa and around Aleppo, they now want to distance themselves and return to something more moderate. 99% of Syrian citizens don’t want them, the Assad regime doesn’t want them, the moderate opposition groups don’t want them, the US, Russia, Israel and European countries don’t want them, seeing them as a greater threat to world stability than either the Syrian regime or the moderate Syrian rebels – it’s beginning to look like another consensus.

On that basis, with the political will, a ceasefire could even be agreed in time for the upcoming Eid Al-Adha on 14 October, marking the end of the pilgrimage season. Over-optimistic perhaps, given it will take time to drive out the extremist fighters even if the regime and the moderate groups were to unite to achieve it. But once there is consensus, remarkable things can happen very quickly, as we have just witnessed.

Related articles

#Syria’s opposition groups – do their ever-changing dynamics matter?

Young and old arm in arm in Damascus {DD}

Young and old arm in arm in Damascus {DD}

Arguments will rage about numbers of fighters belonging to this or that group in Syria’s opposition rebels and about who is allied to whom. But does it really matter?

Western analysts are obsessed with putting rebel groups into boxes and labelling them. Are they linked to Al Qa’ida is always the first question? Are they jihadis?  What is their ideology? How Islamist are they? But it has become increasingly difficult to determine accurate numbers, as allegiances are shifting all the time,  new groups are emerging or blending with others. The IHS Jane’s analyst Charles Lister thinks there are up to a thousand rebel groups who together make up a body of some 100,000 opposition fighters. He categorises only 30-40,000 of them as moderates. Other sources put the figures higher, at 120-150,000 opposition fighters, with around 50,000 of them categorised as Free Syrian Army fighters. By these sorts of reckonings something between a third and a half of the fighters are moderates, which means that something between two thirds and a half are labelled extremists.

But how meaningful are these distinctions? As more and more stories come out via journalists who spend time embedded with various rebel groups, a common thread is emerging. Many moderate fighters in the so-called extremist groups like Jabhat An-Nusra are fighting to free Syria from the Assad regime. They will join whichever group is the most effective and best-funded to achieve that end. If that means growing a beard and adopting Islamist names and slogans, so be it. There is also the important fact that these extremists groups in the north have seized much of the country’s oil, gas and grain supplies in Syria’s northeast  Jezira region and can therefore distribute them to ‘loyal subjects.’ But such allegiances are temporary and are based on the economics of war. Very few such fighters and local residents are likely to remain ‘extreme Islamists’ after the objective has been achieved. The vast majority will revert to their previous moderate positions once a charade of extremism is no longer necessary.

The most interesting development of recent days has been the increasingly vocal rejection by the Syrian Coalition and by other opposition fighters inside Syria of the behaviour and ideology of ISIS, the Islamic State of Iraq and Shaam, the new extremist group which emerged in spring this year. Its summary executions, seizing of churches as military headquarters and random slaughter of anyone who is not like them are drawing more and more criticism, not just from international commentators abroad, but also from Syrian opposition figures inside and outside the country.

All these developments lead me to hope that, in some future democratic system of free elections inside Syria, Syrians will finally be free to speak out against Islamic extremism and expel it from their country. By having a taste of the reality of an ISIS-led Islamic state in areas around Aleppo and Raqqa, Syrian citizens have seen for themselves how it works on the ground.

As for the recent announcement by the 11/13 rebel groups rejecting the leadership of the Syrian Coalition in exile, that too may be less significant than it first seems. The ever-shifting dynamics among rebel groups on the ground are clearly impossible for outside powers to control, but by the same token are equally difficult for the Assad regime to control, forcing it to realise it cannot win this fight. And that makes the chances of a UN-sponsored peace agreement infinitely more hopeful than before.

Related articles

Revenge in Arab proverbs #Syria

Arab proverbs on revenge do not augur well for Syria’s future. There are many, but here are a few, to give a flavour:

Blood washes away blood

Vengeance erases shame

Break one jar of mine and I will break one hundred of yours

I looked for Arab proverbs on forgiveness and could only find one:

Only when the fault is forgotten is forgiveness complete

Reading Robert Fisk’s offering from Damascus today:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/robert-fisk-in-damascus-assads-troops-may-be-winning-this-war-in-syrias-capital–untouched-by-obamas-threats-8825005.html

left me deeply troubled about where events are heading.

As the Turkish proverb says:

If you dig a grave for your neighbour, measure it for yourself

 

Related articles

Analysis of a War Crime #Syria

If the negotiators in Geneva could be made to watch Channel 4’s footage tonight of the massacre at Al-Bayda I would defy them not to come up with a peace solution for Syria tomorrow. The cold-blooded, pre-meditated execution which the film documents is gut-wrenchingly chilling, mothers forced to watch their children being beheaded in front them, young children forced to watch their fathers’ throats slit. I could not stop crying. How can anyone who has witnessed such things go on to lead a normal life? How can they ever forgive the perpetrators? Putting myself in their shoes, I cannot begin to imagine how they can rebuild their lives.

Thank goodness for the dedication and determination of Human Rights Watch to pursue the facts behind such cases. The evidence that the massacre was carried out by regime soldiers aided by paramilitary shabiha on hundreds of civilian villagers is overwhelming, Human Rights Watch concludes. They are still working on proving it fulfilled the criteria of ‘ethnic cleansing’:

channel4.com/news/syria-al-…

Maa’loula Media War #Syria

Mar Serkis (St Sergius) Monastery dating to the 4th century, one of Syria's oldest still functioning churches [DD]

Mar Serkis (St Sergius) Monastery dating to the 4th century, one of Syria’s oldest still functioning churches [DD]

Why has Maa’loula, Syria’s most famous Christian village, suddenly found itself caught up in the Syrian war? Like most Christian villages, it has stayed neutral from the beginning, trying not to be drawn onto one side or the other. Why should it happen now?

Maa’loula is of no strategic interest to the rebels, set as it is in a cleft under a cliff with only one way in and out. Only the Qalamoun Mountains above the Christian town are of interest as strategic high ground from which to command surrounding areas. The regime has controlled a big and well-armed checkpoint at the entrance to Maa’loula for a long time, but last week it started firing up at rebel positions high above Maa’loula, provoking the rebel attack on the checkpoint. The regime then began shelling the town to displace the rebels, and the story hit the papers. Residents of Maa’loula were understandably frightened and distressed, feeling they had to leave and take shelter in Damascus. Conveniently, the BBC’s Jeremy Bowen had been given a regime-approved visa to be in Damascus, and was there to interview and film the fleeing Christians. Headlines across the world soon became ‘Christians in Maaloula forced to flee homes and houses looted by rebels.’ YouTube videos uploaded afterwards showed some damage to the Hotel Safir at the top of the cliff and to some residential buildings. The two famous monasteries were undamaged.

The facts here are strange for their timing. It is extremely lucky for the regime to have such headlines at present, to give weight to the anti-US intervention campaign, to make the rebels look as if they are targeting Christians. But why would the rebels do that? In the entire course of the Syrian civil war, the overwhelming majority of people killed have been Sunni Muslim. There have been no reciprocal massacres of Christians or Alawites by the rebels. If they had wanted to target Christians they could have done so months or even years ago, desecrating churches and knocking down crosses. Instead, many rebels have been actively helping Christians and protecting them wherever possible. In Qara, a little north of Maaloula the Christians are helping the rebels. In Homs the rebels are guarding the churches and the frescoes inside have not been damaged. Only the external fabric and the glass has been damaged by the regime shelling.

Church frescoes in Homs, Church of the Virgin's Belt [DD]

Church frescoes in Homs, Church of the Virgin’s Belt [DD]

They are even protecting the 35 or so Christian families who are still in Homs, too old or too poor to leave. But none of that makes headlines.

In Maaloula, beside the two famous monasteries of Mar Serkis and Mar Thekla, whose shrines are visited by Christians and Muslims alike in search of miraculous cures like a kind of ‘Lourdes’, there are 6 further churches and 2 mosques. The community is predominantly Christian but is also mixed. In Seydnayya, another famous monastery a little to the south just on the edge of the Qalamoun Mountains, the shrine is also visited by both Christians and Muslims, again seeking cures to illness and disease. In the town there are 13 further churches and 2 mosques. Two Christian women in the town are married to Muslim men. These communities have lived side by side for centuries.

Now however the regime is in a very tight spot, with the threat of an American-led attack. Bringing to the forefront of the world’s consciousness a strategically insignificant but historically significant place like Maa’loula, Syria’s most famous Christian village well known to tourists as the place where the nuns will sing ‘The Lord’s Prayer’ for you in Aramaic, ‘the language of Christ’,  is a very clever ploy. The regime has learnt well from the American and British PR firms it paid so handsomely to advise it on ‘image enhancement’ before the revolution broke out. Better trained and better funded, they are winning the PR war.

Related articles

Bonanza for Syria’s Treasure Thieves

The colonnaded street at Roman Apamea, Syria's largest archaeological site, visited by Mark Antony and Cleopatra  [DD]

The colonnaded street at Roman Apamea, Syria’s largest archaeological site, visited by Mark Antony and Cleopatra, now the victim of numerous illicit digs [DD]

This month was to have seen the start of a major three month exhibition called simply ‘Syria’ running from Sept-Dec 2013 at the Royal Academy in London’s Piccadilly, showcasing its art treasures to the world. Preparations were well under way when the Syrian uprising began in March 2011.

Instead, over the last three months criminal looting, illicit digs and theft of Syria’s art treasures have reached colossal proportions. Armed gangs, taking advantage of the absence of security at archaeological sites, have carried out systematic violent excavations, sometimes using bulldozers, to steal priceless antiquities.

Sites damaged by the fighting can often be repaired. Stolen items are lost forever. This criminality is a by-product of the fighting, and it is escalating.

The areas particularly affected are near the borders where the antiquities can be quickly and easily transported out of the country.  In the east near the Iraqi border ancient sites like Mari and Doura Europos have been targeted, in the west sites like Apamea and the Forgotten/Dead Cities, and in the south near Dara’a hundreds of hired men and armed gangs have been digging illegally inside the Al-Omari Mosque and in the Wadi Yarmouk and Tell Al-Ash’ari archaeological sites. Palmyra has also suffered illegal looting.

In an attempt to counter this alarming escalation, Syria’s Directorate General of Antiquities and Museums has been trying to keep track so it can alert Interpol to intercept the antiquities being smuggled and has launched a new website in English and Arabic http://www.dgam.gov.sy which is updated daily cataloging the damage. Their experts have been trying, against the odds, to stem the outward tide of treasures and have been turning up at work every morning to do their best in the face of this criminality.

War damage to Syria’s cultural heritage has already been considerable. But damage from pure criminal theft is ten times worse and needs to be stopped. The full-scale looting of an entire country’s heritage is at stake and only the restoration of law and order can put a stop to it.

Some will say it is wrong to talk of physical damage to buildings at a time when such catastrophic loss of life is taking place. Of course the loss of human life matters more than anything, but this matters too, because when the war is finally over, Syria will need its rich cultural heritage to bring much needed employment to help rebuild the country. Its loss damages every Syrian.

The famous 5th century St Simeon Stylites' Basilica in the heart of a lawless area south of Aleppo [DD]

The 5th century St Simeon Stylites’ Basilica, one of the ‘Forgotten/Dead Cities’ in the heart of a contested area south of Aleppo [DD]

 Related articles

Syria is not Iraq – 10 key differences

Images of Paradise in the mosaics of Damascus' Great Umayyad Mosque [DD]

Images of Paradise in the mosaics of Damascus’ Great Umayyad Mosque [DD]

Young and old arm in arm in Damascus

Young and old arm in arm in Damascus [DD]

Following on from ‘Syria’s Ghost’ (posted 31/08/2013) here are 10 key differences between the case for intervention in Syria as opposed to Iraq:

1. In 2003 Iraq was not in a civil war. It was simply another repressive authoritarian Arab state not much worse than Mubarak’s Egypt and Gaddafi’s Libya.

2. Syria in March 2011 witnessed a peaceful spontaneous uprising against its repressive authoritarian leader Bashar Al-Assad.

3. The Iraqi people were not asking the US-led coalition to intervene.

4. A large section of the Syrian people asked the international community to intervene after the Assad regime countered their peaceful demonstrations with extreme violence, arbitrary arrest and torture.

5. Iraq in 2003 did not present a threat to the international community. There were no Al-Qa’ida operatives or jihadis inside Iraq. They came in later to profit from the chaos we created.

6. Syria presents a serious threat to the security of the international community. The Al-Qa’ida-linked jihadi groups have thrived in the vacuum left by our non-intervention, and are growing. They are starting to dominate the moderate rebel groups like the Free Syrian Army.

7. Iraq was not a proxy war.

8. Syria has become a proxy war: America v Russia, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Hizbullah v Salafis. The interests of the Syrian people have been lost in the proxy war interests.

9. Iraq was not a humanitarian intervention. It was not in danger of collapse in 2003. It was not at war and was stable.

10. Syria would be a humanitarian intervention under the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ doctrine (Bosnia is the model). Syrians are dying of starvation and lack of medical attention as well as regime massacres and chemical weapons attacks. An entire generation is being lost.

For all those reasons, Syria is not Iraq, and for all those reasons, from the moment the regime made clear its intention to wipe out all opposition, I have supported intervention by the international community. Without it, Syria will disintegrate entirely over a period of years, and the fallout will come back to bite us big time.

Saladin's Castle in the mountains above Lattakia [DD]

Crusader Castle of Saone, later Saladin’s Castle in the mountains above Lattakia [DD]

Saladin's Tomb in Old Damascus. Saladin was a Kurd. [DD]

Saladin’s Tomb in Old Damascus. Saladin was a Kurd. [DD]

Looking at it objectively now 10 years on, the American-led invasion did inadvertently help one sector of the Iraqi people – the Kurds. Autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan could almost be seen as a model for the Middle East. Its schools since 2012 are teaching all world religions equally, and Islam is just one of them, no favouritism. It is booming economically thanks to its oil and its trade with Turkey. But all that was an unintended consequence.

Syria’s Kurds could also benefit from the current crisis in Syria, but that is happening anyway, and will continue irrespective of American strikes. More and more of them are pouring out of Syria’s northeast corner into Iraqi Kurdistan, where they are being warmly welcomed. Kurdistan may well turn out to a lasting beneficiary of the chaos inside Syria, along with the Syriac Christian community in eastern Turkey:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23614968.

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