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Archive for the tag “Syria peace talks”

Collapsing Syrian pound mirrors collapsing confidence in regime control

 

A fake Syrian banknote from Budapest...

A fake Syrian banknote from Budapest…

The collapse in the Syrian pound has accelerated dramatically in recent weeks. Businessmen whose interests are tied in with the Assad regime’s survival are getting increasingly anxious, fearing the exchange rate is now beyond Syrian government control. In March 2016 the Syrian pound traded at around 440 to the US dollar, now it is 650 and rising daily. Before the war began in 2011 it was 47 and had been stable for some years.

The collapsing pound seems to directly mirror the collapsing confidence of merchants and traders once loyal to the Assad regime. Many are buying dollars with their profits and quickly transferring them to bank accounts abroad. Meanwhile Western Union, the accepted method for relations and friends abroad to transfer foreign currency into Syria, has for months only been allowed to pay out currency from abroad inside Syria in local cash.

For Syrians on the government payroll – a staggering 2.7 million people or, even more staggering, roughly 35% of the population now living in the regime-controlled areas – this is a disaster. Life is becoming impossible. A friend who is head of one of the state-run banks in Damascus has been telling me that her monthly salary enables her to feed the family for two days only. More and more people are being forced to sell possessions and property; many are making the decision to abandon ship and leave, even though they know their chances of employment elsewhere are miserable. Neighbouring countries and Europe will inevitably feel the pressure of more refugees.

The reason behind the quickening collapse is thought to be twofold: firstly Russia’s reluctance to back Assad with full air strikes in the regime assault on Aleppo, which has led to another stalemate instead of the quick victory they had hoped, and secondly a new World Bank report estimating Syria’s foreign reserves to be a mere $700 million, down from £20 billion before the war.

ISIS has recently recaptured oilfields around Palmyra, increasing pressure on the regime’s ability to provide electricity to the capital. Income from taxation has plummeted as 80% of Syrians now live below the poverty line. Recruitment rates into the Syrian army are minimal, as more and more young men leave the country rather than be fed into the war machine.

Peace talks are planned to resume in Geneva in the coming weeks. Bashar al-Jaafari, Assad’s head negotiator, arrived late at the last round, after first waiting for the 13 April Syrian parliamentary elections to be completed. Although the Syrian parliament is impotent under the current Syrian constitution and the result was a foregone conclusion with the election of regime cronies vetted by the security services, the message to the international community was clear – the Assad regime is the only legitimate government of Syria.

Assad votin in parliamentary elections April 13 2016

The propaganda value to the regime of Palmyra’s recent recapture in championing this message has also been key. Foreign journalists, normally denied visas, were suddenly invited in and bussed across the desert to photograph the fabulous ancient ruins, still 80% intact, that lie between Syria’s largest oasis and an extinct volcano – the perfect romantic backdrop to Assad’s rehabilitation as national hero valiantly fighting ISIS terrorism. The Russians then bussed in a further round of journalists to witness the absurd spectacle of a Russian orchestra playing in Palmyra’s theatre, with President Putin appearing live on a stage screen to congratulate all involved in the victory. Palmyra was the crown jewel in Syria’s tourism industry and its restoration is scheduled to be the flagship project for rebuilding Syria.

Putin in Palmyra May 2016

The opposition in exile and even the officially-sanctioned domestic opposition have dismissed all such stunts as ‘illegitimate’ tricks to gain leverage in the peace talks. The PYD, the largest grouping of Syrian Kurds, who are busy consolidating their semi-autonomous cantons in the north, have also dismissed the PR campaign. So far they not been invited to the Geneva talks, for fear of upsetting the main Turkey/Saudi-supported opposition.

Syria’s peace envoy Staffan de Mistura is putting a brave face on all such complications, stressing that the peace talks are “flexible”. His optimistic aim remains to achieve a political transition by August and UN-supervised elections within 18 months, where all Syrians can vote, even the diaspora, be they penniless refugees or wealthy businessmen. The upcoming US change of president in November is another pressure on John Kerry and the Obama administration to try to broker a Syrian political settlement with Russian help in the coming months.

The big question remains whether Assad will agree to negotiate his own exit, given all the mounting pressures, especially if it becomes clear his traditionally loyal inner elite are ready to sacrifice him. More likely in my view is that his skilful team in Geneva will simply continue their policy of appearing to offer national unity and reconciliation, even though their survival is at the expense of the entire country.

Related articles:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/369f583a-177a-11e6-b8d5-4c1fcdbe169f.html#axzz48RMygHJj

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36024370

http://www.syria-report.com/news/finance/four-main-factors-behind-recent-rise-dollar-syrian-forex-market

A fake Syrian banknote from Budapest...

A fake Syrian banknote from Budapest…

 

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Syria peace talks – what hope?

lavrov and kerry

While the outside players frantically shuttle between world capitals trying to convene peace talks in Geneva before the end of January, it seems there are only two things about Syria all can agree on: that a solution must be found to the five-year catastrophic war and that neither ISIS nor the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra can be part of that solution.

But there the unity ends. Calling the fighting inside Syria a ‘civil war’ seems wrong when there are so many outside players – Russia, Iran and Hezbollah supporting the Assad government, America, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey supporting the rebel opposition – and those are just the key actors. Certainly many Syrians inside Syria feel it is no longer a war over which they can exert any control. Interventions by outside interested actors, most recently Russia, mean that Syrian territory is being used as a battlefield with scant regard for those who once lived there. Small wonder so many are leaving, giving up on their country, heading for the ‘safe haven’ of Europe. One million refugees made it to Europe in 2015. Unless the war stops, projections for 2016 are that 3 million will come. The urgency for peace talks is real.

All previous attempts have failed, but this time the hope is that the UN Resolution unanimously passed on 18 December 2015 gives the necessary mandate. It sets a timetable for talks to begin in January 2016, form a transitional government within six months, followed by free UN-supervised elections a year later, in which all Syrians, even those abroad in the diaspora will be eligible to vote, something which Assad banned in the 2014 elections where he was re-elected for his third 7-year term. A recent secret poll conducted inside regime areas is said to have shown a maximum of 25% support for Assad, so there is little doubt that his fate in fair elections would be a resounding rejection by his people.

Brinkmanship games are rife as the talks approach. Media and propaganda wars between Russia and the West’s versions of the truth on besieged areas like Madaya are matched on the ground by escalations of Russian air strikes and rebel offensives desperate to gain a few extra centimetres in case a ceasefire is forced upon them. The death toll has risen sharply and thousands more have been displaced from their homes.

The UN peace envoy Staffan de Mistura has refused to send out invitations to Geneva till the list of attendees on both sides has been agreed by the US and Russia. The Assad regime has named its delegation, headed by Bashar al-Ja’fari, Syria’s UN representative. The rebel opposition has named its team, approved in Riyadh. The chief negotiator is Muhammad Alloush, brother of Zahran Alloush, former head of powerful rebel group Jaysh al-Islam, who was assassinated on Christmas Day in a Russian air strike. George Sabra, a Christian dissident who spent time in Assad’s prisons, has been named as the deputy.

Needless to say, Russia and Assad are not happy with this ‘revolutionary’ opposition and are now trying to pressure the US and other parties into accepting its own list of ‘approved’ opposition as well, so that there would be two opposition delegations. Included in the Russian list would be Saleh Muslim, leader of the PYD Syrian Kurds, with whom both the US and Russia have recently been partnering in their fight against ISIS. But the ‘revolutionary’ opposition does not see the Syrian Kurds as part of the solution, since they never fought Assad, but simply took advantage of the power vacuum when Assad’s troops pulled out of the northern Kurdish areas and seized the territory for themselves. The Syrian Kurds argue that they must sit at the negotiating table now that they control such a big chunk of territory in the north with their semi-autonomous region of Rojava.

Assuming some kind of formula can be found to reach agreement on who is invited, the delegations will then hold ‘proximity talks’, not sitting in the same room or even the same building, with Staffan de Mistura and his team shuttling between the delegations trying to find enough common ground to keep talking.

That will be the easy bit. For whatever may be agreed in these peace talks, it will all be worthless unless it is enforced on the ground. No Syrians I know are holding their breath.

Relevant articles:

Negotiated Settlements of Civil Wars vs. Victories

http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2016/1/22/syrian-opposition-pulls-plug-on-peace-talks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-23/u-s-russia-said-to-near-compromise-to-unlock-syria-peace-talks

http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/with-few-men-left-in-syria-women-run-the-show-1.1656924

http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Commentary/30413/Putin_Syria_Plans_Worry_Both_His_Opponents_His_Allies

http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Commentary/30438/Lavrov_Proposal_Geneva_Russian_List_Battles_With_Riyadh_List

 

 

 

Madaya’s shocking media war exposed

madaya starving child

My previous post talked of the difficulties of seeing through the fog of war, balancing the media reports from all sides and trying to reach an understanding of the truth. The case of Madaya was highlighted.

Now the German newspaper Bild has uncovered evidence showing just how ruthlessly the Madaya story has been exploited by the Assad regime to further its own narrative of the war and to inflict maximum damage on the reputation of the opposition rebels.

The English version of the story can be read here in full:

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/syrien-krise/hell-of-madaya-44151008.bild.html

In summary, it concludes that the 300 men, women and children “rescued from Madaya” and interviewed by the waiting Russian, Iranian, Hezbollah and Assad press, were ‘actors’, fake residents bussed in by Hezbollah fighters on the morning of 11 January from the nearby village of Bloudan.

Russian TV in Madaya

The predominantly Christian village is about 5km from Madaya and supports President Assad. The same people always spoke in all the interviews, thanking Assad for saving them and blaming the rebels for stealing their food. Photos of these 300 people were sent all round the world, but not only were they far from starving, they were also filmed at the last Assad checkpoint before Madaya. The Syrian flag gives this away.

Madaya well-fed imposters with Syrian flag showing they are in Assad area Madaya fake residents guarded by assad soldiers

Real residents of Madaya say they did not recognise any of them – none of them were from Madaya.

When shown the Russian TV report, a doctor in Madaya told Bild it was a farce. The reality, he said, was that many Free Syrian Army soldiers sold their rifles to buy food for their families from the regime checkpoints, where government soldiers were selling rice at $200 a kilo.

Bild goes on to conclude that:

“None of this can be seen in official images and there is reason to suspect that the aid organisations have been put under pressure by Assad: either they showed the regime’s actors or they could no longer carry out their work in Syria.”

This brings us to another vital point which, as it happens, is discussed in an article in the January 2016 issue of Chatham House’s International Affairs, entitled ‘The unintended consequences of emergency food aid: neutrality, sovereignty and politics in the Syrian civil war, 2012-15.’ The authors are Jose Ciro Martinez and Brent Eng.

They show how ‘paradoxically, aid has accomplished exactly the opposite of what its proponents and distributors, at least in public, claim. Our observations and analysis suggest that foodstuffs distributed by UN agencies and most humanitarian organizations, despite their pretensions to neutrality, have contributed to supporting sovereignty and political outcomes at odds with those neutral aspirations.’

In other words, in the case of Syria, aid cannot be neutral because the international aid agencies have to operate through Syrian regime channels to be allowed into the country. The distribution of this aid is then controlled by the Assad regime and its agencies like SARC (the Syrian Arab Red Crescent) and used to legitimize the government by ‘enabling the regime to fulfil some of its welfare responsibilities and to project an image of comparative security’. By contrast the rebel opposition areas receive no aid because the regime prevents SARC from working there. As a result ‘rebel groups unable to feed those under their control have seen their legitimacy eroded’, which has in turn ‘undermined public support for various fighting groups.’

The full report can be read here:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/ia/unintended-consequences-emergency-food-aid-neutrality-sovereignty-and-politics-syrian

Tragically, the real residents of Madaya were still starving inside the town, as the aid agencies’ own photos later showed:

madaya bild jan 2016 madaya field hospital girl

The UN and the international community must loudly condemn these practices, which are taking places all over Syria, not just Madaya. My caretaker has been eating grass since 2013 in Eastern Ghouta, in another ‘starve or surrender’ siege by the regime. Pressure must be applied on the Assad regime to allow aid to be properly ‘neutral.’ The chances of anything positive happening at the upcoming peace talks – ‘the Vienna process’ – remain very small as long as the current level of mistrust prevails.

Related:

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/syrien-krise/hell-of-madaya-44151008.bild.html

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/ia/unintended-consequences-emergency-food-aid-neutrality-sovereignty-and-politics-syrian

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35309814

 

 

War of words over Syria intensifies in run-up to peace talks

The UN arriving at Madaya January 2016

The UN arriving at Madaya January 2016

As 25 January 2016 approaches, it is not just the fighting on the ground that is intensifying, it is also the war of words. This is the date set by the UN to start international peace talks in Geneva between all parties involved in Syria’s war, including the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition, together with their respective key backers Russia and Iran, the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The much publicised ‘starve or surrender siege’ in Madaya is the latest example of the media battle.

No western journalists were allowed in to cover the story of the international aid convoys reaching the besieged town, but a Russian journalist was on hand to give his version of events, duly reported on Russian TV:

https://www.rt.com/news/328609-syria-besieged-madaya-exclusive/

He accused the rebels of keeping earlier deliveries of aid for themselves and selling it at inflated prices to the starving civilians.

This version of events was backed up by the Syrian government’s own spokesman at the UN:

http://sana.sy/en/?p=66404 He denied there were people starving in Madaya.

The BBC’s Lyse Doucet was not allowed in, so did the next best thing of interviewing Syrians who were protesting against the Madaya siege at the Lebanese border crossing, some of whom had relations inside the blockaded town. They tell a different story:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35278173

Western media generally focussed on the pictures of the starving children and interviews with local people trapped inside, as did the anti-Assad Gulf news channels like Al-Arabiya, though they also mentioned the rebel siege of the two Shi’a villages of Kafraya and Al- Foua’a in Idlib province which received simultaneous convoys of food aid yesterday, 11 January 2016.

The true picture becomes ever cloudier and more confused and unless we have first-hand knowledge of our own, all our perceptions of a faraway situation are inevitably shaped by whatever media we choose to read, hear or watch.

A UN Security Council resolution adopted in December set out an ambitious two-year roadmap for the upcoming peace talks, in which a new Syrian constitution will be drafted, followed by Syrian elections. The issue of the fate of the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad remains unaddressed, as everyone knows this is the thorniest problem. The immediate aim of the Geneva talks is for all concerned parties to agree a ceasefire.

In the run-up to the talks, every side will be doing its utmost to slander and attack the other, militarily and verbally. We should expect ugly battles of words and violent atrocities. The Syrian government is demanding to see in advance the list of opposition figures who will be attending, a list arrived at with Jordanian help and coordinated by Riad Hijab, chosen to head the opposition negotiating body. A 50 year old Sunni from Deir Ez-Zour, he was briefly prime minister under Assad, before becoming the most senior figure to defect to the opposition in 2012. The hope is that he can straddle both camps, except there are not just two camps, there are many, including the Kurds, who also want a seat at the table in Geneva. ISIS and Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Al-Nusra are not invited.

If all relevant parties actually make it to the table, it will be a miracle, a major achievement by Syria peace envoy Staffan De Mistura who is shuttling between Riyadh, Damascus and Tehran, in a fevered rush to make sure the date is met.

My advice to anyone following the build-up is to choose your media carefully. Maybe do the same as a Franciscan nun I met recently, who has spent a total of 23 years in Syria, including 6 years in Raqqa. When I asked her what media she followed, she replied:

“I watch the pro-Assad Al-Mayadeen and the anti-Assad Al-Jazeera. Then I know that the truth is somewhere in the middle.”

Related:

http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2016/1/8/starved-into-accepting-a-political-solution-in-syria

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-requests-opposition-delegation-list-peace-talks-497296067

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-35150037

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35294890

Only Syrian people should determine the future of their country, Putin renews

http://news.yahoo.com/secular-syrian-alliance-demands-seat-peace-talks-table-163053502.html

 

 

 

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