dianadarke

Syria and Turkey commentary

Syria peace talks – what hope?

lavrov and kerry

While the outside players frantically shuttle between world capitals trying to convene peace talks in Geneva before the end of January, it seems there are only two things about Syria all can agree on: that a solution must be found to the five-year catastrophic war and that neither ISIS nor the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra can be part of that solution.

But there the unity ends. Calling the fighting inside Syria a ‘civil war’ seems wrong when there are so many outside players – Russia, Iran and Hezbollah supporting the Assad government, America, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey supporting the rebel opposition – and those are just the key actors. Certainly many Syrians inside Syria feel it is no longer a war over which they can exert any control. Interventions by outside interested actors, most recently Russia, mean that Syrian territory is being used as a battlefield with scant regard for those who once lived there. Small wonder so many are leaving, giving up on their country, heading for the ‘safe haven’ of Europe. One million refugees made it to Europe in 2015. Unless the war stops, projections for 2016 are that 3 million will come. The urgency for peace talks is real.

All previous attempts have failed, but this time the hope is that the UN Resolution unanimously passed on 18 December 2015 gives the necessary mandate. It sets a timetable for talks to begin in January 2016, form a transitional government within six months, followed by free UN-supervised elections a year later, in which all Syrians, even those abroad in the diaspora will be eligible to vote, something which Assad banned in the 2014 elections where he was re-elected for his third 7-year term. A recent secret poll conducted inside regime areas is said to have shown a maximum of 25% support for Assad, so there is little doubt that his fate in fair elections would be a resounding rejection by his people.

Brinkmanship games are rife as the talks approach. Media and propaganda wars between Russia and the West’s versions of the truth on besieged areas like Madaya are matched on the ground by escalations of Russian air strikes and rebel offensives desperate to gain a few extra centimetres in case a ceasefire is forced upon them. The death toll has risen sharply and thousands more have been displaced from their homes.

The UN peace envoy Staffan de Mistura has refused to send out invitations to Geneva till the list of attendees on both sides has been agreed by the US and Russia. The Assad regime has named its delegation, headed by Bashar al-Ja’fari, Syria’s UN representative. The rebel opposition has named its team, approved in Riyadh. The chief negotiator is Muhammad Alloush, brother of Zahran Alloush, former head of powerful rebel group Jaysh al-Islam, who was assassinated on Christmas Day in a Russian air strike. George Sabra, a Christian dissident who spent time in Assad’s prisons, has been named as the deputy.

Needless to say, Russia and Assad are not happy with this ‘revolutionary’ opposition and are now trying to pressure the US and other parties into accepting its own list of ‘approved’ opposition as well, so that there would be two opposition delegations. Included in the Russian list would be Saleh Muslim, leader of the PYD Syrian Kurds, with whom both the US and Russia have recently been partnering in their fight against ISIS. But the ‘revolutionary’ opposition does not see the Syrian Kurds as part of the solution, since they never fought Assad, but simply took advantage of the power vacuum when Assad’s troops pulled out of the northern Kurdish areas and seized the territory for themselves. The Syrian Kurds argue that they must sit at the negotiating table now that they control such a big chunk of territory in the north with their semi-autonomous region of Rojava.

Assuming some kind of formula can be found to reach agreement on who is invited, the delegations will then hold ‘proximity talks’, not sitting in the same room or even the same building, with Staffan de Mistura and his team shuttling between the delegations trying to find enough common ground to keep talking.

That will be the easy bit. For whatever may be agreed in these peace talks, it will all be worthless unless it is enforced on the ground. No Syrians I know are holding their breath.

Relevant articles:

Negotiated Settlements of Civil Wars vs. Victories

http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2016/1/22/syrian-opposition-pulls-plug-on-peace-talks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-23/u-s-russia-said-to-near-compromise-to-unlock-syria-peace-talks

http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/with-few-men-left-in-syria-women-run-the-show-1.1656924

http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Commentary/30413/Putin_Syria_Plans_Worry_Both_His_Opponents_His_Allies

http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Commentary/30438/Lavrov_Proposal_Geneva_Russian_List_Battles_With_Riyadh_List

 

 

 

Madaya’s shocking media war exposed

madaya starving child

My previous post talked of the difficulties of seeing through the fog of war, balancing the media reports from all sides and trying to reach an understanding of the truth. The case of Madaya was highlighted.

Now the German newspaper Bild has uncovered evidence showing just how ruthlessly the Madaya story has been exploited by the Assad regime to further its own narrative of the war and to inflict maximum damage on the reputation of the opposition rebels.

The English version of the story can be read here in full:

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/syrien-krise/hell-of-madaya-44151008.bild.html

In summary, it concludes that the 300 men, women and children “rescued from Madaya” and interviewed by the waiting Russian, Iranian, Hezbollah and Assad press, were ‘actors’, fake residents bussed in by Hezbollah fighters on the morning of 11 January from the nearby village of Bloudan.

Russian TV in Madaya

The predominantly Christian village is about 5km from Madaya and supports President Assad. The same people always spoke in all the interviews, thanking Assad for saving them and blaming the rebels for stealing their food. Photos of these 300 people were sent all round the world, but not only were they far from starving, they were also filmed at the last Assad checkpoint before Madaya. The Syrian flag gives this away.

Madaya well-fed imposters with Syrian flag showing they are in Assad area Madaya fake residents guarded by assad soldiers

Real residents of Madaya say they did not recognise any of them – none of them were from Madaya.

When shown the Russian TV report, a doctor in Madaya told Bild it was a farce. The reality, he said, was that many Free Syrian Army soldiers sold their rifles to buy food for their families from the regime checkpoints, where government soldiers were selling rice at $200 a kilo.

Bild goes on to conclude that:

“None of this can be seen in official images and there is reason to suspect that the aid organisations have been put under pressure by Assad: either they showed the regime’s actors or they could no longer carry out their work in Syria.”

This brings us to another vital point which, as it happens, is discussed in an article in the January 2016 issue of Chatham House’s International Affairs, entitled ‘The unintended consequences of emergency food aid: neutrality, sovereignty and politics in the Syrian civil war, 2012-15.’ The authors are Jose Ciro Martinez and Brent Eng.

They show how ‘paradoxically, aid has accomplished exactly the opposite of what its proponents and distributors, at least in public, claim. Our observations and analysis suggest that foodstuffs distributed by UN agencies and most humanitarian organizations, despite their pretensions to neutrality, have contributed to supporting sovereignty and political outcomes at odds with those neutral aspirations.’

In other words, in the case of Syria, aid cannot be neutral because the international aid agencies have to operate through Syrian regime channels to be allowed into the country. The distribution of this aid is then controlled by the Assad regime and its agencies like SARC (the Syrian Arab Red Crescent) and used to legitimize the government by ‘enabling the regime to fulfil some of its welfare responsibilities and to project an image of comparative security’. By contrast the rebel opposition areas receive no aid because the regime prevents SARC from working there. As a result ‘rebel groups unable to feed those under their control have seen their legitimacy eroded’, which has in turn ‘undermined public support for various fighting groups.’

The full report can be read here:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/ia/unintended-consequences-emergency-food-aid-neutrality-sovereignty-and-politics-syrian

Tragically, the real residents of Madaya were still starving inside the town, as the aid agencies’ own photos later showed:

madaya bild jan 2016 madaya field hospital girl

The UN and the international community must loudly condemn these practices, which are taking places all over Syria, not just Madaya. My caretaker has been eating grass since 2013 in Eastern Ghouta, in another ‘starve or surrender’ siege by the regime. Pressure must be applied on the Assad regime to allow aid to be properly ‘neutral.’ The chances of anything positive happening at the upcoming peace talks – ‘the Vienna process’ – remain very small as long as the current level of mistrust prevails.

Related:

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/syrien-krise/hell-of-madaya-44151008.bild.html

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/ia/unintended-consequences-emergency-food-aid-neutrality-sovereignty-and-politics-syrian

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35309814

 

 

War of words over Syria intensifies in run-up to peace talks

The UN arriving at Madaya January 2016

The UN arriving at Madaya January 2016

As 25 January 2016 approaches, it is not just the fighting on the ground that is intensifying, it is also the war of words. This is the date set by the UN to start international peace talks in Geneva between all parties involved in Syria’s war, including the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition, together with their respective key backers Russia and Iran, the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The much publicised ‘starve or surrender siege’ in Madaya is the latest example of the media battle.

No western journalists were allowed in to cover the story of the international aid convoys reaching the besieged town, but a Russian journalist was on hand to give his version of events, duly reported on Russian TV:

https://www.rt.com/news/328609-syria-besieged-madaya-exclusive/

He accused the rebels of keeping earlier deliveries of aid for themselves and selling it at inflated prices to the starving civilians.

This version of events was backed up by the Syrian government’s own spokesman at the UN:

http://sana.sy/en/?p=66404 He denied there were people starving in Madaya.

The BBC’s Lyse Doucet was not allowed in, so did the next best thing of interviewing Syrians who were protesting against the Madaya siege at the Lebanese border crossing, some of whom had relations inside the blockaded town. They tell a different story:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35278173

Western media generally focussed on the pictures of the starving children and interviews with local people trapped inside, as did the anti-Assad Gulf news channels like Al-Arabiya, though they also mentioned the rebel siege of the two Shi’a villages of Kafraya and Al- Foua’a in Idlib province which received simultaneous convoys of food aid yesterday, 11 January 2016.

The true picture becomes ever cloudier and more confused and unless we have first-hand knowledge of our own, all our perceptions of a faraway situation are inevitably shaped by whatever media we choose to read, hear or watch.

A UN Security Council resolution adopted in December set out an ambitious two-year roadmap for the upcoming peace talks, in which a new Syrian constitution will be drafted, followed by Syrian elections. The issue of the fate of the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad remains unaddressed, as everyone knows this is the thorniest problem. The immediate aim of the Geneva talks is for all concerned parties to agree a ceasefire.

In the run-up to the talks, every side will be doing its utmost to slander and attack the other, militarily and verbally. We should expect ugly battles of words and violent atrocities. The Syrian government is demanding to see in advance the list of opposition figures who will be attending, a list arrived at with Jordanian help and coordinated by Riad Hijab, chosen to head the opposition negotiating body. A 50 year old Sunni from Deir Ez-Zour, he was briefly prime minister under Assad, before becoming the most senior figure to defect to the opposition in 2012. The hope is that he can straddle both camps, except there are not just two camps, there are many, including the Kurds, who also want a seat at the table in Geneva. ISIS and Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Al-Nusra are not invited.

If all relevant parties actually make it to the table, it will be a miracle, a major achievement by Syria peace envoy Staffan De Mistura who is shuttling between Riyadh, Damascus and Tehran, in a fevered rush to make sure the date is met.

My advice to anyone following the build-up is to choose your media carefully. Maybe do the same as a Franciscan nun I met recently, who has spent a total of 23 years in Syria, including 6 years in Raqqa. When I asked her what media she followed, she replied:

“I watch the pro-Assad Al-Mayadeen and the anti-Assad Al-Jazeera. Then I know that the truth is somewhere in the middle.”

Related:

http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2016/1/8/starved-into-accepting-a-political-solution-in-syria

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-requests-opposition-delegation-list-peace-talks-497296067

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-35150037

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35294890

Only Syrian people should determine the future of their country, Putin renews

http://news.yahoo.com/secular-syrian-alliance-demands-seat-peace-talks-table-163053502.html

 

 

 

Syria’s Second Revolution

So silent for so long on Syria, the international community has finally been jolted out of its slumber. “Let them kill each other. It’s so far away and nothing to do with us.”  The wake-up call came in the form of the Paris bombings of Friday 13 November and the massive media focus on their aftermath.

Kafranbel Paris bombings banner

Now that the dangers of allowing ISIS to thrive in the vacuum of Syria’s chaos have finally exploded in Europe, the nature of the conflict has changed in most people’s minds. Suddenly Syria looks different. In reality nothing has changed at all in Syria’s tragic crisis. Simply our perception of it has changed.

Syria’s first revolution which, lest we forget, began with peaceful demonstrations in March 2011, was hijacked long ago by extremists masquerading as Muslims -ISIS moved into the Syrian provincial capital of Raqqa as long ago as spring 2013, but no one paid attention  (except Father Paolo, who paid the price http://dianadarke.com/tag/father-paolo-dalloglio/). Like a germ left undisturbed in the perfect environment, ISIS multiplied exponentially.

Coming hot on the heels of the largely ignored 12 November Beirut bombings and the much publicised 31 October Rusian plane crash in Sinai, the 13 November Paris bombings were cleverly timed to be a day before the 14 November Vienna international talks on Syria and the 15 November G20 talks in Turkey’s Antalya.

ISIS planners wanted maximum world attention and they succeeded. The 33-year old US/Syrian ISIS Head of Media is not paid a fortune for nothing.

ISIS prepares for beheadings in Palmyra's theatre May 2015

ISIS prepares for staged beheadings in Palmyra’s theatre May 2015

So now what? All the signs are that the international community is ready to unite and take action, especially after confirmation that the Russian airliner was definitively downed by an ISIS bomb. The chief outside players in what the media insists so cruelly on calling Syria’s “civil war”  (as if this war is the fault of the Syrian people) have been stoking this war in their own ways. Russia and Iran with their military and tactical support for the Assad regime are heavily involved on the ground inside the country, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have been feeding in weaponry to their preferred rebel groups but careful to do it from the sidelines, no actual boots on the ground. The US-led coalition of 60 countries has been dropping bombs on ISIS for over a year to little effect. Russia has been dropping bombs on opposition groups inside Syria, usually not ISIS, for the last six weeks, also with little effect.

Bashar al-Assad bigging himself up in the mirror (Ali Ferzat cartoon, 2010)

Bashar al-Assad bigging himself up in the mirror (Ali Ferzat cartoon, 2010)

Everyone realises it is time for something new.

Momentum is building for Syria’s second revolution. A rare consensus is taking shape. It happened before with the surprisingly speedy UN deal to rid Syria of its Chemical Weapons, after Assad crossed Obama’s “red line” in August 2013. It could happen again:

“this time to rid the country of the growing extremist groups like ISIS. Maybe moderate elements from the rebels can find a common cause and unite against this greater extremist menace whose terrorist jihadi agenda threatens not just Syria’s future but the future of the entire international community…For such a second revolution to succeed, everyone must forget that the first began with peaceful protests, everyone must forgive regime troops for gunning down unarmed protesters. The diversity of Syria’s identity must be its strength, not its weakness.” [ref page 256 My House in Damascus: An Inside View of the Syrian Revolution, January 2015]

And that is the key. In Syria’s second revolution there must be unity among all Syrians. Even “the silent majority” and the “greys”must find their voice. Most Syrians living under ISIS are there by coercion, longing for their nightmare to end, praying for someone to set them free. There is still a sense of what it means to be Syrian. Partition, convenient though it may appear to outside governments looking for quick-fix solutions, would be a disaster, resulting in massive ethnic cleansing and waves of emigration on a scale Europe cannot imagine.

This time the international community must not abandon Syria, as it did during the first revolution. For all our sakes, Syria’s second revolution must succeed.

Aylan Kudi drowned on a Turkish beach September 2015

Aylan Kurdi drowned on a Turkish beach September 2015

Relevant articles:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-34840858

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/16/world/middleeast/beirut-lebanon-attacks-paris.html?action=click&contentCollection=Middle%20East&module=MostPopularFB&version=Full&region=Marginalia&src=me&pgtype=article

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34840943

 

 

 

 

Syria’s Antiquities Chief comes to London

Syria’s Director-General of Antiquities and Museums made his first ever trip to the UK yesterday, on what he described as a one-day visit, ahead of similar visits to Paris and Rome. The most surprising thing was that he was granted permission to exit Syria, and the second was that he was granted a visa to enter the UK. The Syrian government is very keen, ahead of the Vienna talks, to show its cultural face.

DGAM director

And Professor Dr Maamoun Abdulkarim did a good job. In his 45 minute talk, accompanied by many images, the DGAM head addressed a large audience of over 500 in the Royal Geographical Society’s Ondaatje Lecture Theatre, in halting but intelligible English for which he apologised, saying his English was “new”, only learnt 18 months ago. French is his main foreign language. The talk was titled “Syrian Cultural Heritage during the Crisis 2011-2015” and was supported by the World Monuments Fund Britain.

The DGAM chief steered a careful course, talking of “one heritage for one people, no politics, humanity heritage”. He described how he and his 2,500 staff in the Directorate General of Antiquities and Museums were in charge of Syria’s 10,000 sites, 34 museums and their 300,000 artefacts, doing their best, working in both government-held and opposition-held areas of the country, with the cooperation of local people. He told how they had emptied 99% of the contents of the museums and carefully boxed them up, after first doing detailed database information on them, then put them in safe places with anti-theft alarms and extra guards. He hoped that in two or three years’ time, the collections might be able to be brought out again and returned to display in the museums.

DGAM empty museums

Three hundred of his ex-students were among the staff helping, he said, showing pictures of them preparing the thousands of packing cases.

He showed photos of the damage in Homs old city, saying they were now restoring the churches, and that the damage inside Krak des Chevaliers was being repaired – Phase One of the repair was complete and the castle was open, he said.

DGAM Krak

At Maaloula he also said journalists had been allowed in to see repair work at the monastery of Mar Serkis. No mention was ever made of which side had caused the damage – unless it was ISIS.

At Palmyra he showed the before and after photos since the ISIS takeover in May 2015, promising that he would rebuild the Temples of Bel and Baal Shamin, the Triumphal Arch and the funerary towers. They had the necessary documentation, he insisted. He paid tribute to Palmyra archaeologist Khaled al-As’ad, beheaded by ISIS.

DGAM Khaled al-As'ad

In Bara and other Cities of the Dead he said they had successfully persuaded local people living in the ruins after their homes had been bombed, not to cause damage to the stones by lighting fires. He mentioned that these 700 Byzantine era towns were his own speciality.

In Apamea, Doura Europos and Ebla he showed photos of massive-scale illegal digging and looting, but said that in Ebla they had now secured the site against further damage. He showed photos of the mosaic museum at Maaret Numan and said they had protected it with the help of local people. In Bosra he showed photos of people clearing the vegetation from the tiers of the Roman theatre, saying they were working with the opposition groups now controlling Bosra, to protect the site.

He spoke of how 6,000 stolen artefacts had been recovered by Syrian police. He thanked INTERPOL, UNESCO, ICOMOS and the World Monuments Fund, and expressed his gratitude to expert help from the British Museum and Durham University.

He ended by saying he had felt “isolated” by the international community because he was “public” (working for the government), but hoped that everyone could come together to help save Syria’s cultural heritage in a way that was “scientific, not political.”

He received loud applause, was praised as “a hero” by his host, John Darlington from the World Monuments Fund, and was then rushed off to an interview with Sky News.

Related:

http://www.dgam.gov.sy/index.php?m=337

(the new Arabic/English website of Syria’s DGAM)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p036zqq6

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28191181

What does Erdogan’s election victory mean for Turkey, ISIS and the Syrian Kurds?

Turkey’s conservative Muslims have spoken. What’s more they have spoken loudly, defying the polls and the expert predictions, returning President Erdogan’s conservative Islamist-leaning AK (Justice and Development) Party to power with its longed-for parliamentary majority, lost at last June’s elections. The Turkish lira and stock market have surged with relief. Electoral turnout was 86%. It is a mandate most politicians can only dream of, winning a thumping 50% of the vote, a vote of confidence in Erdogan himself, whose simple mantra: Choose me or chaos, worked.

Erdogan after 1st Nov election victory 2015

Love him or hate him, Erdogan is an ace politician, a “master of optimization”, more able than any of his rivals to turn the recent turmoil in Turkey’s security situation to his advantage. Threatened with instability on its 900km-long Syrian border, and with internal terrorist incidents ratcheting up markedly since June, it appears that Erdogan, Turkey’s authoritarian leader for the last 13 years, is widely perceived as the only politician with the strength and experience to handle such challenges.

His gains came at the expense of the far-right MH (Nationalist Action) Party and the left-wing HD (People’s Democratic) Party, both of which lost seats to 41 and 59 respectively. Significant here is that the HDP overtook the MHP for the first time, despite not even campaigning, a protest against Erdogan’s bullying tactics. Their charismatic new leader Selahattin Demirtas can take much credit. His time will surely come, but not yet it seems.

For now, it is still Erdogan’s Turkey. Travelling regularly throughout Central Anatolia and Eastern Turkey since the mid-1980s, I have observed first hand the dramatic changes that Erdogan’s AK Party has brought to those regions, especially the dominantly Kurdish provinces of the southeast. Far removed from the affluent Aegean and Mediterranean coastal areas where the secular CHP (Republican People’s Party) still holds sway, Turkey’s traditional heartlands were long neglected and ignored by politicians.

Erdogan changed all that, investing in massive infrastructure projects like improved road networks and high-speed trains heading east. The controversial series of dams on the Euphrates River generated much-needed hydroelectric and water resources to launch new agriculture ventures in the southeast, bringing employment and prosperity to areas formerly suffering from poverty and deprivation. The Anatolian Tiger cities like Konya, Malatya, Kayseri and Gaziantep have boomed, bringing to the fore a new breed of conservatively Muslim entrepreneurs, sometimes described as “Islamic Calvinists”. On my last stay in Gaziantep I met such a family, where the father was a successful lawyer, the mother was a biochemist in a local hospital in her day job, writing Turkish cookbooks and restoring the family courtyard house into a boutique hotel in her spare time. The three sons were all businessmen, and even the youngest, only 15, was already trading in mobile telephones across the border with Syria.

As well as presiding over the economic and agricultural transformation in Turkey’s heartlands east of Ankara, Erdogan has also been the first politician to make real moves towards reconciliation with the Kurds and other minorities like the Syriacs, instituting language and cultural rights, and initiating a peace process (currently stalled) with the cooperation of Abdullah Ocalan, imprisoned leader of the PKK Kurdish separatist movement.

Since the Syrian Revolution of March 2011 gradually evolved into a regional proxy war displacing half the population, Turkey has hosted the largest number of Syrian refugees, some three million. European leaders are only just waking up to the problems of accommodating Syrian war refugees, but many Syrians are grateful to Turkey for its humanitarian open-border policy towards them, allowing them access to schooling and healthcare at huge cost to its own national budget.  Hospitality is a core Muslim duty, carried out without fuss or fanfare.

syrian refugees in turkey

Western media have given Erdogan a hard time in recent years for his vanities and authoritarian excesses like his absurdly grandiose White Palace with its gold toilet seats, together with his hawkish silencing of media opponents. But for the time being, it is a simple fact that there is no one else of his stature on the Turkish stage.

 

So what direction will Turkey take now? Yesterday’s decisive election victory stopped just short of the “super-majority” needed to give himself French or American-style presidential powers, but he will probably wield them anyway. Erdogan does not underestimate the challenges facing his country. He has more reason than most to want an end to the Syrian war, an end to the Kurdish PKK insurgency and an end to the spread of ISIS terrorism. If that means arriving at a conciliation with the Syrian Kurds in the form of Saleh Muslim’s PYD, and uniting with them in the fight against ISIS, that may well be a move he is prepared to make in order to restore stability to Turkey. It is in both their economic interests and Erdogan did after all reconcile with the Iraqi Kurds, enabling Turkey to become Iraqi Kurdistan’s  biggest trading partner. And who knows, the “Islamic Calvinists” of the Anatolian Tigers might yet present the pseudo-Islamic caliphate of ISIS with its greatest ideological challenge.

Related posts and articles:

http://dianadarke.com/2015/06/06/kurds-and-women-determine-turkeys-election/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34696489

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/203b1ef8-8139-11e5-8095-ed1a37d1e096.html#axzz3qLduUxtp

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/07/08-turkey-syrian-refugees-kirisci-ferris

 

 

 

 

 

Can Russia save Syria?

Caption reads: "The Time of Masculinity and Men."

[Caption] “The Time of Masculinity and Men.”

Since the uprising against Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011, no one has been more supportive of him and his ruling elite than Russia’s President Putin. The increased Russian presence was discreet at first, but gradually began to manifest itself in surprising ways. Plastered on buildings in central Damascus in December 2014 for the first time street I saw private adverts offering Russian lessons. Then I read in local newspapers that the Faculty of Arts and Humanities in Damascus University had just opened a new department for Russian language and literature in response to rising demand.

“Analysis of the labour market,” announced Syria’s Minister for Higher Education, “indicates an urgent need for the Russian language.”  Record numbers of students, it transpired, had applied to study Russian, indicating as the Minister explained the “strength of the relations between Syria and Russia, especially in the current social landscape.”

When I asked my Damascus friends and neighbours about this development, they laughed and joked: “Yes, we’re looking forward to the new lady Russian teachers. Russia is becoming the new foreign language in Syria now!”

russian language

Of course Russia’s relations with Syria go back a long way, to the early 1960s, when Hafez al-Assad and his Ba’athist comrades enjoyed steadfast support and military hardware from the Russians. The Syrian Armed Forces have for decades been supplied with Russian aircraft and tanks, and most top Assad regime military officials received training in Moscow. At university level there were many exchanges with Syrian students sent to study in Moscow while Russian professors were brought to Damascus to teach students in both arts and sciences.

Today Russia has long-term interests in coastal Syria, notably its naval base in Tartous and its oil-exploration rights in Syria’s territorial waters of the Eastern Mediterranean. In recent months these interests have come under threat from rebel opposition groups making a series of gains at regime expense in Idlib province, posing the first real threat to the Lattakia region, Assad’s Alawite stronghold, where much of Syria’s displaced population is now concentrated. Russia is additionally concerned at the number of Chechens who have joined ISIS, said to be as many as 4,000, fearing they may return to Russian soil and wreak havoc domestically in revenge-driven ‘blowback’.

chechens in isis

The Russian airstrikes within Syria which started on 30 September 2015 have not come out of the blue. They will have been months in the planning, possibly as far back as May 2015, when ISIS first seized Palmyra in a lightning offensive, taking advantage of a strategic redeployment when the Syrian army withdrew from Palmyra in order to bolster manpower in Idlib province.

Although Palmyra, situated on its own in the middle of the desert, does not fall within Russia’s area of interests in Damascus and Syria’s western coastal regions, it will not have escaped the Russian strategists that recapturing Palmyra and returning it to Syrian regime control would be a massive PR coup before ISIS can destroy what remains of the archaeological site in what appear to be monthly staged explosions. In August it was the Temples of Baal Shamin and of Bel, in September the funerary towers and most recently on 5 October the Triumphal Arch.

Palmyra Baal Shamin destruction palmyra arch

It would also fit the Russian narrative of seeking to drive ISIS out of Syria and should be a relatively realistic goal, since ISIS has only had a little over four months to dig in, not long enough to put down strong roots in the small town of Tadmur adjacent to Palmyra. On top of the obvious international kudos Russia could gain from such a move, it would be an important strategic reclaiming of the regime’s oil and gas fields in the area, as well as protecting the regime’s nearby air bases. So far Russia is denying it has struck targets round Palmyra, despite initial Syrian reports to the contrary.

As Russia raises the stakes ever higher with surprise cruise missiles launched onto targets inside Syria from the Caspian Sea, after first gaining permission to fire over both Iranian and Iraqi airspace, the West watches helplessly from the sidelines. Putin is becoming Syria’s saviour.

Syrian kissing putin

Russia and the Syrian army appear to be coordinating their strategy with the clear aim of eliminating ISIS and other opposition groups. The West’s strategy remains in disarray. The US-led coalition has been completely upstaged, its year of expensive airstrikes achieving remarkably little to date. The addition of British air power to that equation will change nothing.

Meanwhile Russia’s strategy on Syria has been consistent from the start. Now it has caught the ball from its Syrian, Iranian and Iraqi team players and is running with it, ready to score a series of goals which is bound to terrify and demoralise the opposition groups and even send them fleeing the country to join the exodus to Europe.

As Goethe wrote centuries ago: “Thinking is easy, acting is difficult, and to put one’s thoughts into action is the most difficult thing in the world.” Putin seems to suffer from no such difficulties. While Obama, NATO and the West continue their endless talking shops, Russia is creating new realities on the ground that will shape Syria’s future, maybe even for the better. If Putin succeeds where the West has failed, in eliminating ISIS and reuniting the country, ordinary Syrians will forever thank Russia.

putin and bashar handshake

Caspian sea Russian strikes on Syria 7 Oct 2015

 Related articles:

http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/28168/Damascus+University+Opens+Russian+Language+Department

http://dianadarke.com/?s=russia+assad

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34453739?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

http://tass.ru/en/defense/826656

http://tass.ru/en/defense/826967

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/assad-allies-including-iranians-prepare-ground-attack-syria-115512216.html

http://sana.sy/en/?p=56985

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/06/nato-chief-jens-stoltenberg-russia-turkish-airspace-violations-syria

 

 

 

 

Syria’s soul is being erased – Britain’s role

The world thought it could ignore the Syrian crisis with impunity. Let them kill each other; it’s so far away and nothing to do with us. Bruised by failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the West had no appetite for involvement. But four years of indecision disguised as “noble non-intervention” has been a decision with deadly consequences, as Syrian refugees quite literally wash up on Europe’s shores. After remaining unmoved by thousands of images of carnage and devastation caused by President Assad’s barrel bombs, one image has changed perceptions overnight.

Aylan Kurdi drowned on beach Sept 2015

Syria is the cradle of civilisation, where the cross-fertilization of cultures and ideas resulted in a highly creative and innovative people. It is no accident that the first phonetic alphabet was invented here, the first musical notation, the first hymns, the first female choirs and even female orchestras. This blend and fusion of cultural influences is part of the Syrian identity, an identity that has been traditionally open, tolerant and welcoming.

Palmyra, the desert oasis city on the Silk Road linking the Mediterranean to the Euphrates River, Mesopotamia and beyond, represented this fusion of cultures through the blended Roman Oriental style of its architecture, its statues, its temples and its funerary monuments. Open to trade and the worship of many gods of the region, it too was part of the Syrian identity.

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAOLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

This is the identity which ISIS is intent on destroying. Masquerading as true Muslims, they are blowing up anything they can claim is idolatrous, anything with human or animal forms, while in practice Islam has always coexisted with earlier cultures – except in Wahhabi Saudi Arabia of course, which has also destroyed all manifestations of earlier religions.

Palmyra Baal Shamin destruction

But ISIS is only part of the jigsaw. Syria’s cultural heritage is also being destroyed by the Assad regime’s relentless aerial bombardment and barrel bombing of opposition-held areas like Aleppo, along with residential areas, schools, hospitals and ordinary citizens. All are inextricably linked, all are part of Syria’s identity and this rich, multicoloured fabric of Syrian society is being shredded systematically, day after day with no end in sight and no one coming to help.

Syrian fighter jetbarrel bombing syria

The result is the wave of Syrian refugees  in ever greater numbers fleeing to Europe, their only option since the wealthy Gulf Arab countries have closed their doors, and their official asylum applications are repeatedly turned down. Today I heard Raida, a former resident of my Damascus house, speaking to the BBC from Beirut about her six failed applications to Saudi Arabia, her failed applications to Canada, Austria, France and the UK. Her dignity shone through when she ended by saying she would never resort to people smugglers, neither would she give up her struggle for a better life.

My Damascus House (photo credit copyright Fiona Dunlop)

My Damascus House (photo credit copyright Fiona Dunlop)

The dignity also shines through in the Syrian refugees interviewed on the road as they walk through Hungary to Germany. They are well-behaved and respectful of each other, in spite of their ordeals. They have not lost their humanity. Neither has Angela Merkel, with her vision and leadership, making me proud to be half-German.

Germany Merkel poster mimicking Bashar's August 2015

Of my British half however, I am ashamed. The British government has shown no vision or leadership, feebly waiting for an American strategy on Syria that never came, then taking a cowardly vote (thanks to Ed Milliband) in the House of Commons against military intervention in Syria after the supposed “red line” of the August 2013 chemical weapons attack. The Department for International Development’s much vaunted overseas aid projects are about as effective as a sticking plaster for a man whose guts have been blown out.

For the last four years Syria has been left like an open wound, untreated, slowly bleeding to death. Had Syrian pleas for a safe haven to be established on the Turkish border in summer 2011 been heeded, hundreds of thousands of refugees now fleeing the country could have stayed inside Syria; their destabilising pressure on the infrastructures of Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey would have been avoided; the Assad regime’s handling of the uprising would have been challenged early on; the germ of ISIS would not have been left to multiply exponentially in Raqqa since April 2013 and to grow into the Frankenstein monster it is today, hijacking Syria’s revolution, overrunning Iraq and distorting perceptions of Islam.

isis on move

Syria’s soul is being systematically erased. Only intervention can stop it. It will be infinitely more difficult to establish a safe haven now, four years too late, but it still has to be the first step, to stem the exodus of refugees. For those already on the road, Britain needs to adopt the German approach – take thousands according to each region’s wealth and population spread evenly and equally across the country. If Germany can take in 1% of its population, so can we. The only alternative is to stop Syria’s war, something for which there is, it seems, neither the strategy nor the political will so far.

Related posts:

Syria is not Iraq: 10 key differences http://dianadarke.com/2013/09/01/syria-is-not-iraq-10-key-differences/

A Syrian in Saarbrucken http://dianadarke.com/2015/08/17/a-syrian-in-saarbrucken/

The Prophet Muhammad in Islamic Art http://dianadarke.com/2015/02/15/the-prophet-muhammad-in-islamic-art/

How ISIS misuses early Islamic history to justify its actions http://dianadarke.com/2014/08/23/how-isis-uses-early-islamic-history-to-justify-its-actions/

 

 

 

A Syrian in Saarbrucken

“Politics is all about interests, everyone knows this of course,” said Muhammad, his earnest brown eyes looking directly into mine. “But none of us imagined it would end like this.”

In those intelligent philosophical eyes I could see echoes of Ramzi Read more…

How to get a German passport

Muhammad Yassin passport Germany

Every year over 40,000 migrants arriving in Germany do a German citizenship test. 33 questions have to be answered, of which at least 17 must be correct.

Here is a sample of the types of questions, carefully and cleverly chosen to highlight key differences between how the autocratic societies from which many migrants are likely to have come function, and how German society functions.

Question 1:

In Germany people are often allowed to say something against the government because…

A  There is religious freedom here.

B  People pay taxes.

C  People have the right to vote.

D  There is freedom of opinion here.

 

Question 2:

What is compatible with the German constitution?

A  Corporal punishment.

B  Torture.

C  Death penalty.

D  Punishment by fine.

 

Question 3:

Two friends want to go to an open-air swimming pool. Both are dark-skinned and are therefore not allowed in. Which right has been violated in this situation? The right to…

A  Freedom of opinion.

B  Equal treatment.

C  Freedom of assembly.

D  Freedom of movement.

 

Question 4:

Which right belongs to the basic rights which are guaranteed according to German constitution:

A  Freedom of belief and conscience.

B  Maintenance.

C  Work.

D  Accommodation.

Question 5:

What does it not say in German constitutional law:

A  Human dignity is sacrosanct.

B  Everyone should have the same amount of money.

C  Every person is allowed to give his opinion.

D  Everyone is equal before the law.

 

Question 6:

Elections in Germany are free. What does that mean?

A  One can accept money to vote for a specific candidate.

B  Only people who have never been in prison can vote.

C  The voter cannot be influenced or forced to vote for a particular candidate.

D  All people entitled to vote must cast their vote.

 

Question 7:

Where in Germany do you go to inform yourself about political topics?

A  Security department of the local municipality.

B  Customer head office.

C  National head office for political education.

D  Churches.

 

Question 8:

What kind of living is not allowed in Germany?

A  A man and woman are divorced and live with new partners.

B  Two women living together.

C  A single father living with his two children.

D  A man married to two wives at the same time.

 

Question 9:

What does one need in Germany for a divorce?

A  The consent of the parents.

B  A doctor’s certificate.

C  The consent of the children.

D  The guidance of a lawyer.

 

Question 10:

A young woman wants to get her driving licence. She is afraid of the test because German is not her mother tongue. What is right?

A  She must live in Germany at least 10 years before she can get her driving licence.

B  She cannot get her driving licence if she does not know German.

C  She must get her driving licence in the country of her mother tongue.

D  She can perhaps do the theory test in her mother tongue. It is on offer in more than 10 languages.

(Source: The Rhein-Neckar Zeitung of 25/26 July 2015)

Related posts:

A successful Syrian asylum seeker in Germany:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33817958

From Our Own Correspondent BBC Radio 4 http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b063y63k (starts at 7 minutes in)

Muhammad Yassin Mersin boat4

 

Germany granted asylum to over 41,000 in 2014, more than 30,000 of them Syrian. Britain has taken 187 Syrian refugees to date, 1.5% of Germany’s acceptance rate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24583286

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-says-britain-will-accept-just-a-few-hundred-more-syrian-refugees-despite-4-million-looking-for-new-home-10332104.html

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